Flight paths to net-zero aviation by 2050

The maritime sector has successfully promoted sustainable practices on high-volume routes. GFPs are busy flight routes between major airports that focus on using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to reduce carbon emissions. GFPs could create reliable demand for sustainable jet fuel, and encourage investment in its production and infrastructure. This would bring down sustainable fuel costs and increase availability, and encourage the aviation industry to switch to sustainable fuel more quickly. 

Sustainable fuel investment and take up impasse solved by GFPs 

There is currently a barrier to scaling SAF production. SAF producers often face challenges in reaching a Final Investment Decision (FID) without guaranteed buyers, while consumers—airlines—need reliable SAF supplies and clear requirements before they can commit to off-take agreements. GFPs create stable, route-specific SAF demand that can attract investment and encourage scalable production. By aligning market demand, policy, and infrastructure, GFPs solve the impasse between producers and consumers, accelerating the industry’s path to decarbonisation. 

The GFP model sets the stage for wider SAF adoption across global routes, promoting a cascade effect that extends beyond specific high-traffic routes. 

There are six key findings: 

1. The aviation industry needs to rapidly scale up SAF production to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Current SAF production is only 0.1% of what is needed by 2050, so a 1500-fold increase is necessary. 
2. GFPs, inspired by green shipping corridors, aim to accelerate SAF adoption by focusing on high-volume flight routes. These routes would ensure stable demand for SAF, making its production and supply chains commercially viable. 
3. Countries like the UK and UAE, which are major aviation hubs with strong decarbonisation commitments, are well positioned to pioneer GFPs. Busy, long-haul routes, such as London–Dubai, are ideal candidates to demonstrate the GFP model for wider adoption. 
4. From an energy justice perspective, the responsibility to lead the SAF transition lies with countries that benefit the most from aviation. GFPs ensure that these nations contribute to global decarbonisation efforts. 
5. Establishing GFPs requires close cooperation between airports, airlines, fuel suppliers, and policymakers. This collaboration will help create the necessary infrastructure, regulations, and incentives to support SAF adoption. 
6. By de-risking investments in SAF production, GFPs can help unlock the significant funding required to scale up SAF supply. This can play a crucial role in reducing aviation’s carbon footprint and meeting global climate targets by 2050. 

Authors

Joao Uratani is part of the Bennett Institute for Innovation and Policy Acceleration at the University of Sussex Business School.  

Steve Griffiths, American University of Sharjah 

Alejandro Ríos-Galván, Khalifa University of Science and Technology 

John M. Andresen and M. Mercedes Maroto-Valer, Research Centre for Carbon Solutions (RCCS), and Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC), Heriot-Watt University